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《大行》大摩上調戴爾(DELL.US)評級至「與大市同步」 目標價一舉升至448美元
摩根士丹利發表報告,指該行先前關於記憶體的觀點是錯誤的,因為戴爾科技(DELL.US)在供應鏈管理及執行力上均優於同業,使其能夠掌握關鍵任務需求、搶佔市佔率並擁有定價能力。然而,增長持續時間與幅度的不確定性仍然存在,主要源於需求提前拉貨及企業客戶的風險敞口。該行大幅上調對其預測,目標價由原先170美元大幅上調至448美元,基於2028財年每股盈測20倍,評級...
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《大行》大摩上調戴爾(DELL.US)評級至「與大市同步」 目標價一舉升至448美元
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摩根士丹利發表報告,指該行先前關於記憶體的觀點是錯誤的,因為戴爾科技(DELL.US)      在供應鏈管理及執行力上均優於同業,使其能夠掌握關鍵任務需求、搶佔市佔率並擁有定價能力。然而,增長持續時間與幅度的不確定性仍然存在,主要源於需求提前拉貨及企業客戶的風險敞口。該行大幅上調對其預測,目標價由原先170美元大幅上調至448美元,基於2028財年每股盈測20倍,評級由「減持」升至「與大市同步」。

該行稱,戴爾相對於同業的供應稀缺性正推動市佔率提升、需求提前拉貨、定價能力以及前所未有的收入與每股盈利增長,大摩承認先前低估了這些因素。業績公佈後,該行對其2027及2028財年的每股盈測遠高於先前的模型。目前2027財年預測比市場預測高出7%,2028財年則高出9%。

大摩指,現在的問題是,這種高於趨勢的增長能持續多久(以及應為此支付多少估值)。該行認為目前言之尚早,因此暫時保持觀望。投資者關注焦點需轉向未來12個月的每股盈利修正及「盈利見頂」的預期,因為這幾乎單獨決定了週期性的超額或落後表現。

該行表示,戴爾5月1日止2027財年第一季業績的事實,以及該行上週在台灣的調研,均清楚表明戴爾在應對當前半導體供應鏈短缺方面比同業做得更好,很大程度上緩解了該行先前對記憶體的擔憂。簡而言之,戴爾在幾乎所有業務線上均表現出色,在不斷增長的AI支出中搶佔市場份額,在傳統企業市場中獲得市佔率,並以同業無法做到的方式運用定價能力。

該行相信這包括從二線雲端服務供應商手中贏得通用伺服器訂單。這些因素不僅完全抵銷了創紀錄的投入成本上漲,更推動戴爾自2018年重返公開市場以來最強勁的收入與盈利增長,並遠超其他時期。儘管如此,當前創紀錄增長的持續時間與幅度仍不確定,因為大多數企業硬體支出調查顯示核心增長參差不齊,並伴隨一定程度的加快採購,主要發生在大型企業——即戴爾的核心客戶群。顯然,大摩先前的觀點是錯誤的。在評估當前支出週期的可持續性與幅度及其對戴爾可持續基本面的影響之際,該行將戴爾評級由「減持」上調至「與大市同步」。(da/a)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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