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<Research>JPM Expects CN Banks' Shr Price to Rise This Yr, but Relatively Lag Amid Liquidity Tailwinds; MINSHENG BANK Upgraded to Overweight
Recommend 38 Positive 58 Negative 24 |
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JPMorgan released a research report forecasting absolute share price gains for Chinese banks, though it anticipated that they may underperform the market in 2026. The broker estimated approx. RMB110 trillion of time deposits to mature in 2026, including around RMB7 trillion of excess household deposits. This could provide liquidity support to capital markets and boost market sentiment. Driven by net interest income recovery and wealth management fee, JPMorgan projected moderate improvements in Chinese banks' revenue and profit growth in 2026. However, banks may underperform in a liquidity-driven rally. Among high-dividend stocks, the broker preferred BANKCOMM (601328.SH), BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) and CCB (00939.HK); and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ), PU DEV BANK (600000.SH), INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166.SH) and CM BANK (03968.HK) (600036.SH) for better growth potential. JPMorgan expected growthstocks to outperform high-dividend stocks. Therefore, the broker upgraded MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)'s H-shares from Neutral to Overweight, but downgraded ABC (01288.HK)'s H-shares from Overweight to Neutral. JPMorgan's ratings and target prices for Chinese banks are listed below: Stock | Rating | TP ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------ BANK OF CHINA (601988.SH) | Overweight | RMB6.3 → RMB6.6 ------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------- CITIC BANK (00998.HK) | Overweight | $8.85 → $9.05 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCB (601939.SH) | Overweight | RMB11.3 → RMB11.35 ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- CMB (600036.SH) | Overweight | RMB54 → RMB52 CM BANK (03968.HK) | Overweight | $60 → $61 ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- ICBC (601398.SH) | Overweight | RMB8.9 → RMB9 ICBC (01398.HK) | Overweight | $7.3 → $7.35 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166.SH) | Neutral → Overweight | RMB24 → RMB24.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- AGRICULTURAL BANK (601288.SH) | Neutral | RMB7.5 → RMB7.3 ABC (01288.HK) | Overweight → Neutral | $6.6 → $6.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANKCOMM (601328.SH) | Overweight | RMB8.65 → RMB8.4 BANKCOMM (03328.HK) | Overweight | $8 → $7.85 ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------ EVERBRIGHT BANK (601818.SH) | Neutral | RMB3.6 → RMB3.25 CEB BANK (06818.HK) | Neutral | $3.25 → $3.1 ----------------------------------------------- MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH) | Overweight | RMB5.1 → RMB4.65 MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) | Neutral → Overweight | $4.8 → $4.45 ---------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------- HUAXIA BANK (600015.SH) | Neutral | RMB8.2 → RMB7.5 --- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PING AN BANK (000001.SZ) | Neutral | RMB11.3 → RMB11 -------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------- PSBC (01658.HK) | Neutral | $5.7 → $5.5 ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------- PU DEV BANK (600000.SH) | Overweight | RMB15.7 → RMB14.6 AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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