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《大行》里昂降周大福(01929.HK)目標價至10.7元 關注金價波動
里昂發表研究報告指,周大福(01929.HK)今年3月底止2026財年下半年業績符合預期,4月至5月的交易表現令人鼓舞,但明年3月底止2027財年指引表現好壞參半,強勁的收入增長預期預料將被金價波動帶來的毛利率壓力所抵銷。該行對其2027財年的預測包括淨關店步伐放緩至約500家,以及內地自營與加盟店的同店銷售增長分別達8%及18%,從而推動銷售額按年增長5%...
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《大行》里昂降周大福(01929.HK)目標價至10.7元 關注金價波動
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里昂發表研究報告指,周大福(01929.HK)  +1.690 (+15.198%)    Short selling $369.43M; Ratio 50.093%   今年3月底止2026財年下半年業績符合預期,4月至5月的交易表現令人鼓舞,但明年3月底止2027財年指引表現好壞參半,強勁的收入增長預期預料將被金價波動帶來的毛利率壓力所抵銷。該行對其2027財年的預測包括淨關店步伐放緩至約500家,以及內地自營與加盟店的同店銷售增長分別達8%及18%,從而推動銷售額按年增長5%。基於周大福管理層假設金價為每盎司4,300美元,該行預測其2027財年毛利率及營業利潤率分別為26.5%和14%,按年分別降5.8個及6個百分點,與指引相符。同時,在計及約5億港元的黃金融資借貸公允價值收益後,預計2027財年淨利潤將按年增長12%至100.99億港元 。

里昂表示,雖然欣賞周大福在提升零售卓越表現及定價黃金產品(佔2026財年銷售額35.4%)方面的努力,但由於金價持續走軟可能會在銷量和結構波動中對銷售及毛利率帶來壓力,內地同店銷售增長能見度仍低,且內地市場面臨激烈的競爭風險,故維持其「持有」評級。因應2026財年業績及毛利率下行風險,該行將2027至2028財年淨利潤預測下調2%至4%,並將目標價由11.2元下調至10.7元,此相當於預測未來12個月市盈率10倍。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-12 12:25.)

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