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《大行》中金料內銀股首季純利按年升2% 關注國有大行、招行及民行等
中金發表報告,預計所研究覆蓋的內地銀行今年首季營收、歸母淨利潤分別按年各增長3%及2%,淨利息收入按年增速(2.4%),相比去年第四季(1.5%)繼續改善,但其他非息收入不確定性加大。 該行預測今年首季覆蓋上市內銀淨利息收入按年增長2.4%,是歸母淨利潤增長的最大貢獻因素(4.3個百分點),龍頭區域行兼顧規模增長與息差改善,淨利息收入增速更快(11%)、對歸...
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《大行》中金料內銀股首季純利按年升2% 關注國有大行、招行及民行等
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4
 
 

中金發表報告,預計所研究覆蓋的內地銀行今年首季營收、歸母淨利潤分別按年各增長3%及2%,淨利息收入按年增速(2.4%),相比去年第四季(1.5%)繼續改善,但其他非息收入不確定性加大。

該行預測今年首季覆蓋上市內銀淨利息收入按年增長2.4%,是歸母淨利潤增長的最大貢獻因素(4.3個百分點),龍頭區域行兼顧規模增長與息差改善,淨利息收入增速更快(11%)、對歸母淨利潤貢獻更高(17.6ppt)。(1)息差:該行預計今年首季所覆蓋內銀息差按年下降9個基點,相比去年第四季的11個基點繼續收窄,該行判斷今年首季或為年內息差按年降幅最大的季度,主要由於2025年LPR下調影響依然需要釋放,而高成本存款較為集中的到期則是息差的主要支撐因素。個股層面,建議關注中行(03988.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $243.45M; Ratio 28.674%   、平安銀行(000001.SZ)  -0.120 (-1.070%)   等資產端有獨特催化,或華夏銀行(600015.SH)  -0.060 (-0.825%)   等負債成本改善空間大的銀行。(2)規模增長:今年首季銀行規模維持較快增長,對公貸款投放為主,淨利息收入增長的核心引擎保持穩定。

中金表示,內銀股板塊4月建議關注:第一是高分紅且可持續性強、當前估值水平對配置型資金依然具有吸引力的銀行,包括招行(03968.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $237.07M; Ratio 31.835%   、國有大行;第二是低估值、業績邊際改善標的,包括平安、華夏;第三是全年業績預計跑贏行業的龍頭區域行,包括江蘇銀行(600919.SH)  -0.050 (-0.457%)   、渝農商行(601077.SH)  -0.010 (-0.139%)   等;第四是資產質量出清及事件催化,包括民生(01988.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $11.66M; Ratio 14.359%   、興業銀行(601166.SH)  -0.090 (-0.481%)   。(wl/u)
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-16 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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