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《績後》一文綜合大行於港交所(00388.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
港交所(00388.HK)昨(29日)中午公布今年首季業績優預期,昨日股價走高3%,今日(30日)股價回落,最新報412.2元下跌1.9%,成交額19.82億元。摩根士丹利表示,港交所首季收入按年升20%,優於該行及市場原預期各8%及9%,主要受惠於清算費用及投資收益好於預期,上季日均成交額按年增長14%至2,770億元,北向成交額按年大增70%,推動交易費...
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《績後》一文綜合大行於港交所(00388.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
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港交所(00388.HK)  -7.400 (-1.763%)    Short selling $368.48M; Ratio 13.069%   昨(29日)中午公布今年首季業績優預期,昨日股價走高3%,今日(30日)股價回落,最新報412.2元下跌1.9%,成交額19.82億元。摩根士丹利表示,港交所首季收入按年升20%,優於該行及市場原預期各8%及9%,主要受惠於清算費用及投資收益好於預期,上季日均成交額按年增長14%至2,770億元,北向成交額按年大增70%,推動交易費及清算費分別按年增長18%及33%。投資收益按年小幅下降4%,但按季增長5%,超過該行及市場共識20%以上,主要來自公司自主管理的資金。淨利潤按年增長27%,EBITDA利潤率按年提升3個百分點至80%。總費用按年僅增長2%,稅率略高於該行預期。

香港交易所昨日中午公布截至今年首季業績,營業額82.03億元,按年升19.6%。純利51.88億元,按年升27.3%,高於本網綜合6間券商預測介乎約44.29億元至48.41億元(即按年升8.6%至18.7%);每股盈利4.1元。港交所第一季整體平均每日成交金額達2,767億元,為歷來第二高季度紀錄,僅次於2025年第三季創下2,864億元的紀錄,較2025年第一季增加14%。新股集資市場方面,港交所於第一季穩居全球第一新股集資中心的地位,集資額是去年第一季的近六倍,而遞交上市申請的企業亦源源不斷。港交所指,首季公司資金的投資收益淨額為4.41億元,較去年同期的5.16億跌約15%,主要源於外部管理的投資基金公平值收益淨額減少。

【業績優預期】

花旗表示,港交所首季純利52億港元,較市場一致預期高出12%,核心收入較一致預期及該行預測分別高出5%及2%,主要受交易及上市費用增長推動。投資收入13億港元,按季增長5%,較市場一致預期高26%,部分源於本季度錄得7,500萬港元的匯兌收益。營運開支控制良好,按年僅增2%,較一致預期低2%。EBITDA利潤率達80.4%,按年提升3.7個百分點。該行指港交所業績表現強勁,預期將推動市場一致盈利預測上調,該行上調對港交所目標價525元升至530元,維持「買入」投資評級。

美銀證券表示,港交所首季淨利潤52億港元,按年增長27%,較市場一致預期高出15%至17%,創下歷史季度新高。主要驅動因素為香港成交額按年增長,日均成交額2,770億港元,較2025年第一季度平均2,430億港元顯著提升。交易費用及清算費用分別按年增長18%及33%。倫敦金屬交易所成交額按年增長26%。IPO融資規模按年大增約5倍至1,100億港元。雖然利息收入因市場利率下降而按年減少,但債券投資錄得強勁收益。公司在首季度亦有效控制成本,成本收入比由23%降至20%。該行預期市場將對業績作出正面反應,並維持原有預測及目標價520元不變。維持「買入」評級。

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下表列出6間券商對港交所(00388.HK)  -7.400 (-1.763%)    Short selling $368.48M; Ratio 13.069%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價
大華繼顯│買入│545元->556元
花旗│買入│525元->530元
高盛│買入│528元
美銀證券│買入│520元
摩根士丹利│增持│510元
瑞銀│中性│450元

券商│觀點
大華繼顯│港交所核心收入、淨利息收入與成本全面強勁超預期
花旗│首季強勁的IPO管道帶動更高的上市費用
高盛│現金收入強勁、投資收益提升
美銀證券│一季度強勁超預期,估值不高
摩根士丹利│首季收入及盈利增長均強勁
瑞銀│首季在多個業務板塊均超預期

(wl/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-30 16:25.)

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